THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF WHEAT CULTIVATION TO SUPPORT THE IRAQI FOOD BASKET AND ENSURE THE CONTINUITY OF THE RATION CARD

Resumo

This study aims to develop the agricultural reality of wheat production in the region and establish a baseline from which to assess the impact of the national wheat cultivation development project in subsequent years and ensure the contınuıty of the ratıon card. The research relied on a descriptive analytical approach and a standard quantitative approach based on econometrics. The study was conducted in the lands of the Al-Numaniyah region, which were planted with wheat for seven previous agricultural seasons, starting from 2015-2016. wheat cultivation in previous years yielded acceptable positive results from an economic perspective, as measured by statistical analysis. The net present value was 12.7 at a discount factor of 8%, and the benefit-to-cost ratio was 1.1 at a discount factor of 8%. The internal rate of return was 29.3% To predict the current state of wheat cultivation in the region for subsequent seasons, starting from 2022-2023, time series were used, relying on the statistical linear regression equation Y = a + bx. According to this, wheat production forecasts were 44 , 48 , 52 , and 57 thousand tons for the subsequent years, from 2026 – 2029. The results of the analysis revealed a decrease in ration card support allocations in Iraq for the period 2004-2023 which was reflected in a reduction in the ration card items and a decrease in the number of months the ration card was received , although the poverty rate in Iraq for the period 2004-2023 became 21.7% and its average for the years 2020-2023 is 28%.