Análisis de insolvencia en la industria colombiana: una aplicación del modelo Springate

Andrés Caicedo Carrero; Daniel Isaac Roque; Oscar Humberto Quintero Landinez

doi:10.47847/faccea.v16n2a4

Autores/as

Andrés Caicedo Carrero Corporación Universitaria Iberoamericana
Daniel Isaac Roque Corporación Universitaria Iberoamericana
Oscar Humberto Quintero Landinez Corporación Universitaria Iberoamericana

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47847/faccea.v16n2a4

Palabras clave:

Springate, Riesgo, Bancarrota, Pymes, Industrial

Resumen

El sector industrial colombiano enfrenta desafíos que comprometen su estabilidad financiera, por lo que resulta necesario explorar metodologías de detección temprana de insolvencia. Este estudio aplica el modelo Springate para evaluar el riesgo de bancarrota en Pymes industriales colombianas entre 2021 y 2025, modelo elegido por su escasa exploración local y su potencial de adaptación al mercado nacional. Bajo un enfoque cuantitativo, se analizaron 2.447 empresas reportantes ante la Superintendencia de Sociedades, empleando análisis de cuartiles, rango intercuartílico y pruebas de hipótesis. Los resultados evidencian una mejora en la capacidad de pago a corto plazo, aunque persisten brechas de liquidez; el 69,6% de las empresas se ubicaron en zona segura y el 30,4% mostró riesgo latente de bancarrota. El modelo demostró ser una herramienta valiosa para anticipar dificultades financieras, aportando evidencia empírica sobre la aplicación del modelo Springate en empresas industriales colombianas y orientando la gestión de riesgos empresariales.

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